- At the end of the previous (second) quarter in June, the S&P 500 was down -7.9% for the year. Markets around the world had receded as fear increased due to double dip expectations, iron crosses, and the flash crash. At that time, we saw our Psychology hit our seldom achieved highest P1 rating, and we moved to a very bullish position as people ran for cover. Our expectations were realized as the markets soared with the S&P 500 up 10.7% for the 3rd quarter. Today, we have a medium Psychology reading, most positive Valuation, and a rapidly improving Monetary gauge that keep us positive as we enter the traditionally strong election season.
- For the third quarter, the broader US markets were up anywhere from 10-13%. The S&P 500 Total Return and the Dow Total US Stock Market were up 3.9% YTD.
- The MSCI World was up 13.7% for Q3 and 1.3% YTD, while the World Ex-US was up 16.2% for Q3 and approximately 1.7% YTD. Europe rebounded strongly from the financial crisis up approximately 19% for the quarter, which now leaves it down 3% YTD. Emerging markets continue as the best performing world market up over 8% for the year.
- Telecom made its resurgence as the best performing US sector in Q3. It is now up 6% YTD. Consumer Discretion and Industrials continued as the top two performing sectors with strong quarters as well. Financials and Healthcare were to worst performers for the quarter, up 4.1% and 8.2% respectively, and both are still down for the year.
- Thailand was the best performing country we track for the quarter, up 22.3% for Q3 and 32.8% YTD. Several other Asian countries that export to China also performed very well for the quarter. China itself remains one of the worst performing countries, down nearly 19% YTD.
- Growth was the place to be as Midcap Growth led all style boxes for the quarter up 14.4%. It is also the best performing style for the year up 10% YTD. Small Value was the worst performing style up 9.2% for the quarter. Large Value is the worst performing style for the year up 2.7%.
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Please see important disclosures at the bottom of this page.