The chart below looks pretty good, as we assess how much we like the investment year of 2012. But as nice as it looks, especially the move up since the low of June 4th, we know it is not that simple. This has been a very complex year.
Of course, so much attention has been given to one stock - Apple, as it hit 635 back in April, and then 700 in September, and now back to 609. It is pretty obvious that a few stocks have certainly dominated the overall action of the S&P 500.
We had a one week respite last week, but as our Psychology Composite quickly moved back down to P4 (from the P3 we saw early last week), the short-term outlook (with special emphasis on "short-term") has remained at a cautious stance, similar to that of the last few months. The market did rally back to a high last month on September 17th, but the broad non-confirmations are getting more and more obvious.
As we finish out the year though, we're watching the debates, we're reading the polls, we're listening to the commentary, but we're trusting...our Asset Allocation Model.
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