Market Indicator Check-up: Wednesday, October 3, 2012

As you look at the McClellan Oscillator for all exchanges (the blue line in the chart below), you can see from this short-term perspective that the oscillator has recently hit a more oversold condition from which short-term bounces typically occur; however, at the same time, the 21-Day Oscillator (the orange line) has not yet started its healing process toward oversold levels...and most of the time, we get some confirmation from both oscillators moving into an oversold condition.
 
 
Also, in the chart below, you can see that the Overbought/Oversold Indicator for the NYSE that hit the overbought zone two weeks ago as the indices were hot has corrected some, but not to the levels that usually mean that the correction is completed.
 
 
And lastly, let me remind you that the recent increase in Margin Debt has a great record at predicting long-term bullish moves, and that has just occurred.
 
 
So don't let this short-term caution provided by some of the indicators shown above overwhelm the more important long-term bullish signals being given by our total Asset Allocation Model.
 
Don Hays
 
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