Psychology Retreats

On Monday we reported that our Psychology Composite improved from P4 to P3.  Today, however, following two strong days in the market, that ray of optimism has caused enough deterioration to make our Psychology Composite skip back down to P4.  It is not a huge deal, but it is a change.  Overall though, we still see enormous odds that the stock market (S&P 500) will likely have a positive return over the next 12 months based on our historical rankings. 
 
Here's where today's Asset Allocation Model stands.
 
 
So our message today remains.  With Psychology at P4, instead of P3, we have to say the short-term could produce some unwelcome surprises, but history shows it could also produce some very welcome surprises.  But all in all, we're keeping our sights on the long-term outlook.
 
Don Hays
 
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