As we read the headlines and see these volatile moves up, recognizing that we are kicking off the strongest seasonal period of the year, we are sitting here a little nervous about our cautious "short-term" stance. Our Psychology Composite did move to the P3 status just as the lastest rally kicked off, but now with just a few days of rally, we see internally that it has also nosed back down to the threshold of P4 once again. That is not the end of the world, and it certainly would not preclude a big rally NOW, but it is a piece to the puzzle.
We are encouraged, however, to see some improvement in a few of our indicators. The Rydex Ratio (shown below) has come down from the 40% range, but it's still showing around 18% bullish assets and has not yet reached the "neutral" position we had hoped for.
So far - no legs, thus we would still ignore the on-again, off-again changing sentiments and pick your buy spots very carefully at significant support levels.
If you are a subscriber to HaysAdvisory.com, click here to read our recent reports. If you would like to learn more about the research and commentary offered by Hays Advisory, click here.
Please see important disclosures at the bottom of this page.