Looking at the Longer-Term Picture

I've talked about the short-term lately (here & here), but the real theme should always be what your next 10 years would hold.  In 2000 I suggested it would probably take the next 10 years to correct the massive over-valuation of the NASDAQ Composite.  I was wrong!

It has been 13 years, and it still is not back to those levels from the year of 2000.

The S&P 500 has made it as finally those bank stocks have started to shine once again.

But the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were massively distorted and also had huge baggage to get rid of as the Industrial Revolution had evolved into the Technology Revolution.  I consider 1998 as the real top of the bull market that started in the early '80s, but that blow-off top euphoric move in the next two years greatly exceeded the 1998 peaks.  However, you can see in both of those indices that they are currently much above their 1998 peaks.

You can also see that the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index that really did not get so elevated in that 1998-2000 euphoria has still not missed a beat and is far up from those levels.

The collapse in 2008/2009 was a very serious debacle that could have thrown the world into a depression.  It hit us all, but thanks to Ben, we've survived...and thrived.

Don Hays

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