Looking Forward to November

The stock market itself is very volatile, or at least has a lot of changing volatility.  Since May (when bond yields shot up this year), we have seen the market following the trends of stock market volatility.  We don't normally escalate the oscillators into primary status.  It still is not considered primary, but with so many of our primary Psychology Indicators still in a "go slow" status, we're watching these oscillators closely for short-term advice.

The orange line is our flag.  The two levels are +100 for short-term caution, and then a transition to -50 for a green light.  As you can see, the weakness early last week did not trigger the -50 level.  Hence, we still have our short-term posture in the cautious side.

All of this is short-term advice.  Playing the seasonal tendencies, we're guessing that November will once again find all the indicators, short and long-term, aligning in positive levels.

Don Hays

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