Everybody's Getting Bullish

Should I expand that title to say, "Everybody's getting bullish, but you and me?"  I have to admit, there is so much positive insight for the long-term trend to go up substantially from here, but we're sitting here on the cautious side for now. 

Almost all of our Psychology indicators are either in a negative state or close to it.  For instance, one of the best indicators over the last 15 years has been the asset ratio of the Rydex mutual funds.  The speculators that buy these funds are more in the public speculator category, and they are notoriously wrong at extremes.

The "detrended" version of this indicator is showing a bullish bias, which means we're receiving a bearish signal from this indicator at this time.  Over the last 10 years, we've had other signals similar to today; however, you have to observe other parameters to see how much impact this negative signal will have.

Don Hays

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