Time to Hold

So here we sit.  The old song of "you got to know when to hold them, and when to fold them," is very appropriate.  I still consider this a time to hold them, but I don't think it is time to start getting more aggressive.  Typically in bull markets when I continue to be aggressive, you have a strong enough economic environment that produces higher bond yields.  That has happened a little, but if you look at bond yields, it was more of an emotional blip (that seems to be correcting) than a sustainable move up in yields.  Part of this is international based, but a big part of it is still a result of the Fed's buying of bonds.

One of our favorite indicators is the AAII 3-week average of their weekly survey (bottom strip in the chart below).  This is a little slower, and also just one service, but you can see that the last three weeks' results has our indicator right back in the red zone - the individual investors are a little "too bullish."

So with this cautious chatter, why am I not folding.  The reason is simple.  This is only one part (important, but still only one part) of the equation, but the Fed is still pumping.

Don Hays

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